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Investing Insights

Jon Wolfenbarger's Stock and ETF Market Commentary available on no other websiteOur most popular feature by far, Investing Insights unleashes the experienced minds of Jon and our team, sharing exclusive information & education we believe smart investors should know BEFORE risking funds in current markets. We share fresh insights at least weekly -- but sometimes more frequently -- as our proprietary economic and technically-driven models & indicators flash bull, bear, turning points, risk flags, wobbles, bubble alerts, accelerating profit opportunities and much, much more. Our members can learn a great deal from this section and it can help both grow AND preserve your nest egg. Since you won’t find these insights anywhere else on the web, we encourage you to bookmark this feature and check back often.

EMPLOYMENT WATCH  •  September 9, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger

Employment Is Now Declining…So Much For A “Softish Landing”!

NEW YORK — Last week, the “JOLTS report” (Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) showed US job openings fell to 7.67 million in July from a downwardly revised 7.91 million in June. It missed expectations by a whopping 5% and was the fourth miss in the past five months. That is the lowest level of job openings since January 2021, when the economy was recovering from the government imposed covid lockdowns. Also, layoffs rose to 1.76 million, which is the most since March 2023.


This chart shows job openings, quits and hires are all declining at a level usually only seen in recessions.



JOLTS



As shown in this chart, historically there’s been a strong relationship between JOLTS openings (orange line) and the S&P 500 (blue line), although there has been a major disconnect during the AI-driven rally of the past two years.



JOLTS SP500



Construction Employment Is The Next Shoe To Drop 

Given the importance of housing to the economic outlook, since it is 15% to 20% of GDP and is closely tied to interest rates, the significant decline in construction-related job openings is particularly concerning.


As shown below, construction job openings (blue line) are down 46% since February to a four-year low and now at levels first seen in 2016! Construction employment (red line) is currently at record highs of 950K. But given the collapse in construction job openings and new housing starts, we expect construction employment to begin falling significantly soon.



Construction




Disappointing Jobs Report

The August jobs report showed a disappointing 142K net new jobs added in the month, below expectations of 165K. In addition, July was revised down from 114K to 89K and June was revised down from 179K to 118K, for a total negative revision of 86K for the two months. The last four jobs numbers and six of the past seven have been revised downward.


Particularly concerning for the economic outlook, the highly cyclical manufacturing sector lost 24K jobs, which is the second worst jobs report for manufacturing in three years.



Declining Full-Time Jobs And Rising Part-Time Jobs Signals Recession

The number of employed workers rose by 168K, but that was due to a rise in part-time jobs of 527K, offset by a huge 438K drop in full-time jobs. Over the past year,  part-time jobs rose by 1.05 million while full-time jobs fell by 1.02 million. Since part-time jobs pay less and do not provide benefits, it is not surprising that the number of multiple jobholders rose to all-time highs of more than 8.5 million.


As shown in this chart, full-time jobs (blue line) are down 0.8% year-over-year, while part-time jobs (red line) are up 14.4%, which is a classic recession sign.



full part time



Full-time jobs have declined year-over-year every month since February. Over the past five decades, three months in a row of full-time jobs declines have always occurred when the US is in a recession or about to enter a recession.


Another key indicator is temporary jobs. As with full-time jobs, whenever temporary jobs have declined year-over-year for three months in a row, the US has gone into a recession. Temporary jobs have declined for the past twenty-two months. 


Another fact with important economic and political implications: last month, the US added 635K jobs for foreign-born workers, while American-born workers lost 1.325 million jobs. This was tied for the biggest monthly decline in American-born workers since the covid panic of 2020. Indeed, the US has not created any new jobs for American-born workers in more than six years, while 4.7 million jobs have been added for foreign-born workers.



Employment Is Declining For First Time Since Covid, Signaling Recession

As shown below, overall employment growth is now 0.0% year-over-year. In terms of numbers, employment is actually down by 66,000 workers year-over-year. This is the first decline in employed workers since the covid recession of 2020. Whenever employment has turned negative in the past, the US has either been heading toward a recession or already in a recession.



Employment




Unemployment Rate Rise Continues To Signal Recession

The unemployment rate did tick down from 4.3% to 4.2%, but is it still 0.8% above the 2023 lows. When the unemployment rate has risen 0.5% or more, it signaled the last nine recessions with a 100% track record. 


Historically, the unemployment rate has bottomed about seven months before a recession on average, with a range of 1 to 16 months. The unemployment rate last bottomed in April 2023, 16 months ago.



One Additional Concerning Data Point

Our friends at Opening Bell Daily shared this chart using LinkedIn data that shows hiring rates in top US metros have declined for over two years. Currently, five of the top 19 metros are experiencing hiring rates below pre-covid levels.



LInkedIn

Source: Opening Bell Daily




Cyclical Sectors Tell The Story Of Recession

The performance of the most cyclical US stock sectors — Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Banks — as well as the highly speculative asset Bitcoin versus the S&P 500 provides another key recession warning. As shown below, with the exception of Industrials during a few months in late 2022/early 2023, all of these cyclical sectors and assets have been underperforming the S&P 500 since 2020 or 2021. This is further evidence that the AI-driven rally in the major market-cap weighted indexes like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 since late 2022 has been a bear market rally.



Sectors



Investment Implications

The following indicators have always signaled recessions in the past when they have weakened to the levels they are currently showing:

  • full-time job declines
  • part-time job increases
  • temporary employment declines 
  • overall employment declines
  • unemployment rate rise


We believe this is why the Fed will start cutting rates this month. We believe it will be a 0.25% cut, rather than a 0.50% cut, since the unemployment rate ticked down. We also think the Fed wants to try to avoid scaring the market with a 0.50% cut.


Note that historically, when the Fed has cut rates (red line) following a significant hiking cycle such as we have seen the past couple of years, unemployment has skyrocketed (blue line) and a recession (shaded gray) has occurred, as shown below.



Funds UR



We do not expect this time to be different.










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 Previous Issues  


RECESSION WATCH  •  September 2, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Have You Seen The Latest Recession Warning Signs?

CONSUMER WATCH  •  August 26, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Stressed Consumers Will Stress More As Unemployment Rises And Stocks Fall

MACRO SIGNS  •  August 19, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What Are Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing And NVIDIA Telling Us Now?

RECESSION WATCH  •  August 12, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Recession Signs Abound With Stock Market Technicals Deteriorating

RECESSION WATCH  •  August 5, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Wall Street Goes From “No Landing” To “Hard Landing” In A Few Days

FED WATCH  •  July 29, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Still No Reason For Fed Rate Cuts…Except Recession

LEADING INDICATORS WATCH  •  July 22, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Disconnect Between Housing, Economy And Stocks Means Trouble

FED WATCH  •  July 15, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Investors Should Be Careful What They Wish For On Rate Cuts

JOBS WATCH  •  July 8, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Employment Data Says Recession May Have Already Started

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE  •  July 1, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Why Consumers Are Depressed And Why That Matters For Stocks

HOUSING RECESSION  •  June 24, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Housing Recession Continues As Stock Investors Are More Bullish Than Ever

EMPLOYMENT WATCH  •  June 17, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Fed Delays Rate Cuts As Employment Data Signals Recession

EARNINGS OUTLOOK  •  June 10, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
This Is Why Earnings Will Likely Start Declining Soon

STAGFLATION WATCH  •  June 3, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What If Current “Stagflation” Turns Into An Inflationary Recession?

STOCK MARKET PEAK  •  May 27, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Watch For These Signs Of A Stock Market Peak

STAGFLATION AND FED WATCH  •  May 20, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Is Stagflation Bullish With Stock Market Near All-Time High Valuations?

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE  •  May 13, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Tapped Out Consumers Provide Clear Message About Economic And Investment Outlook

UNEMPLOYMENT WATCH  •  May 6, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Weak Jobs Report Shows Investors Continue To Focus On The Wrong Issue

GOVERNMENT DEBT  •  April 29, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What You Need to Know About The Impact Of High Government Debt On Stocks and ETFs

AI STOCKS  •  April 22, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Why Hawkish Fed Policy Is Punishing NVIDIA And AI Tech Stocks

INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY  •  April 18, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Ultimate Driver Of Financial Market Prices

WARS AND UNEMPLOYMENT  •  April 15, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Wars And Job Cuts Raise Risks For Bitcoin And Stock ETFs

EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS  •  April 8, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Jobs Report Consistent With Economy Heading Into Recession

STAGFLATION WATCH  •  April 1, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Will Stubbornly High Inflation Cause Powell To Flip-Flop Once Again?

FEDSPEAK TRANSLATION  •  March 25, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Is Jay “Transitory Inflation” Powell Trying To Destroy The Fed’s Credibility?

INFLATION PROBLEM  •  March 18, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
SuperCore Inflation Accelerates With Investor Sentiment Sky High

BULL AND BEAR MARKETS  •  March 14, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Understanding Bull And Bear Market Cycles

EMPLOYMENT SIGNALS  •  March 11, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Rising Unemployment + Very Overbought Stocks = Trouble Ahead

STAGFLATION WATCH  •  March 4, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Stagflation Worsens As SuperCore Inflation Accelerates And Manufacturing Weakens

HOUSING BUBBLE  •  February 26, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bursting Housing Bubble Implications For Stocks And ETFs

INFLATION INDICATORS  •  February 19, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Will Inflation And Interest Rates Rise Into A Recession?

MARKET OUTLOOK  •  February 12, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Market Breadth And Extreme Investor Sentiment Flash Major Warning Signs

FED WATCH  •  February 5, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Fed Dashes Rate Cut Hopes As Banking Crisis And Employment Worsens

EARNINGS WATCH  •  January 29, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Leading Indicators Are Leading To Falling Earnings With Valuations Sky High

MAGNIFICENT MARKET  •  January 22, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Tech Bubble 2.0 Drives Market To New Highs…Now What?

INFLATION WATCH  •  January 15, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Don’t Tell The Stock Market, But Inflation Remains Too High For Rate Cuts

EMPLOYMENT WATCH  •  January 8, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Jobs Report Flashes Major Warning Signs As Market Breadth Weakens Further

CREDIT CRUNCH  •  January 1, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Credit Crunch, Meet Extreme Investor Bullishness And Narrow Market Breadth

RECESSION WATCH  •  December 25, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What Nike, FedEx And Leading Economic Indicators Know That Investors Do Not

FED WATCH  •  December 18, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Fed Stops Fighting Inflation As They Prepare For Recession

EMPLOYMENT WATCH  •  December 11, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Unemployment Rate Signals A Recession Has Likely Begun

BEAR MARKET SIGNS  •  December 4, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Investors Are Ignoring This Key Recession Indicator At Their Peril

INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY  •  November 27, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Investor Complacency At Highest Levels Since Early 2020 In The Face Of Recession

MACRO OUTLOOK  •  November 20, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Why Wall Street’s Next — And Bigger — Fear Will Not Be Inflation

CREDIT WATCH  •  November 13, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Credit Crunch Drives Manufacturing Into Recession

RECESSION TIMING  •  November 6, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
2 Indicators Show Recession Is Much Closer Than Wall Street Expects

EMPLOYMENT WATCH  •  October 30, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Proven Leading Indicators Point To Rising Unemployment Coming Soon

LEADING INDICATORS  •  October 23, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Leading Economic Indexes And CEOs Are Predicting Recession

BEAR MARKET SIGNS  •  October 16, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Why Jamie Dimon Is Right And Paul Krugman Is Wrong

INFLATION IMPACT  •  October 9, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation Remains Well Above Fed’s Target As Stocks Break Support

BEAR MARKET WATCH  •  October 2, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What The 50% Collapse In Bond Prices Means For The Stock Market

BEAR MARKET SIGNS  •  September 25, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Jay “Wronger For Longer” Powell Talks Tough In The Face Of A Recession

STAGFLATION SIGNS  •  September 18, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation Accelerates And Stocks Break Down As Yellen Dreams Of A Softish Landing

RED FLAGS  •  September 11, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Warning Signs From 2 Key Economic Indicators And FANG+ Stocks

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK  •  September 4, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation And Unemployment Take A Turn For The Worse

FED WATCH  •  August 28, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Fed Forced To Keep Raising Rates Into Recession With Inflation Accelerating

BEAR MARKET WATCH  •  August 21, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bear Market Resumes As Recession Looms

FED POLICY  •  August 14, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Eliminate The Boom-Bust Business Cycle

CREDIT AND HOUSING  •  August 7, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bank Credit, Housing And Manufacturing Are Shouting “Recession!”

RECESSION RISK  •  July 31, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Investors Ignore Rising Recession Risk As Optimism Hits New Highs

STOCK MARKET WATCH  •  July 24, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What The Stock Market And Investor Sentiment Is Telling Us Now

MARKET OUTLOOK  •  July 17, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Slowing Inflation Is Bullish For Stocks...Or Is It?

FED POLICY  •  July 10, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
5 Ways The Fed Has Made The Economy Worse

INFLATIONARY RECESSION WATCH  •  July 3, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation Remains Well Above Fed’s Target As Recession Timing Nears

BEAR MARKET RISK  •  June 26, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Recession Looming + Bearish Stock Market Breadth = New Lows To Come

FED WATCH  •  June 19, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Fed’s 110-Year Track Record of Bureaucratic Central Planning

RECESSION WATCH  •  June 12, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Signs A Recession May Have Already Started

STOCK MARKET INDICATORS  •  June 5, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Current Stock Market Rally Is On Shaky Ground

FED WATCH  •  May 30, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Accelerating Inflation Is Pressuring Fed To Keep Hiking Rates

WARNING SIGNS  •  May 23, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Leading Economic Indicators And Market Internals Are Flashing Red

RECESSION WATCH  •  May 16, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Jay “Softish Landing” Powell Will Also Be Wrong About Recession

US DEBT CRISIS  •  May 8, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Will The US Government Default On Its Debt This Year?

MARKET OUTLOOK  •  May 1, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Two Key Factors Preventing A New Bull Market

LEADING INDICATORS  •  April 22, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Recession Signals Intensify As Bear Market Rally Fades

FED WATCH  •  April 16, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation STILL Remains High, Forcing The Fed To Tighten Into A Recession Even They Expect

RECESSION WATCH  •  April 9, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
7 Signs Employment Is Weakening With Manufacturing In A Recession

BEAR MARKET INDICATORS  •  April 2, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Is This Just Another Bear Market Rally?

BEAR MARKET WATCH  •  March 23, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What Could Go Wrong With Fed Tightening Into A Banking Crisis And Recession?

BANKING CRISIS  •  March 13, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Banking Crisis Implications For Investors And The “Softish Landing” Dream

RISING INTEREST RATES  •  March 3, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Do Investors Understand What Happens When Interest Rates Rise?

RECESSION WATCH  •  February 26, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
8 Stages Of Recession Point To Crash Landing, Not “Softish Landing” (Part 2)

RECESSION WATCH  •  February 22, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
8 Stages Of Recession Point To Crash Landing, Not “Softish Landing” (Part 1)

EARNINGS OUTLOOK  •  February 12, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Wall Street Bullishness Unfazed By Recessionary Earnings Outlook

MARKET OUTLOOK  •  February 2, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Powell Fuels Stock Rally With Hopes For A “Softish Landing”

RECESSION WATCH  •  January 26, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Credit Card Crisis Coming As Layoffs Mount (Part 2)

RECESSION WATCH  •  January 22, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Credit Card Crisis Coming As Layoffs Mount (Part 1)

INFLATION WATCH  •  January 12, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Headline Inflation Slowed, But High Underlying Inflation Keeps Fed Tightening

RECESSION WATCH  •  January 4, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Money Supply And Manufacturing Declines Add Fuel To The Bear Market Fire

STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK  •  December 27, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Can Investors Handle The Truth…About Stock Market Downside Potential?

BEAR MARKET SELLOFF  •  December 18, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Powell “Pivot” To “Pain” Kicks Off Next Major Bear Market Selloff

RECESSION WATCH  •  December 12, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Recession Signs Abound As Market Rally Peaks

INFLATION RISK  •  December 7, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Fed Likely Forced To Fight High Inflation For Many Years To Come

BEAR MARKET UPDATE  •  November 29, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bullish Sentiment Signals Major Stock Selloff Likely Coming Soon

EARNINGS ESTIMATES  •  November 19, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Prepare For The Coming Collapse In Wall Street Earnings Estimates

BEAR MARKET RALLY  •  November 11, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation “Beat” Causes Investors To Forget The 4 Most Dangerous Words In Investing

BEAR MARKET DURATION  •  November 3, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How Long Will This Bear Market And Recession Last?

BEAR MARKET LOSSES  •  October 25, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
3 Ways To Estimate Stock Bear Market Downside Potential

INFLATIONARY BEAR MARKET  •  October 17, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Accelerating Inflation Creates Stock Bear Market Opportunities

BEAR MARKET INDICATORS  •  October 9, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Is The Stock Market About To Crash?

GOVERNMENT DEBT WATCH  •  October 3, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The US Government Is Heading Toward A Major Debt Crisis

BEAR MARKET INTENSIFIES  •  September 24, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Fed Pivots To Even More “Pain” For Stocks And The Economy

FED WATCH  •  September 14, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
High Inflation Continues To Force Fed To Cause “Pain”

COMMODITIES  •  September 5, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Oil And Commodities Bear Market Is Likely Just Beginning

RECESSION WATCH  •  August 28, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Powell’s “Pivot” And The Top 10 Signs Of An Impending Recession

HOUSING WATCH  •  August 17, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Housing Bear Market Will Help Cause Great Recession 2.0

BEAR MARKET WATCH  •  August 9, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Why The Next Major Bear Market Selloff Is Likely Coming Soon

RECESSION WATCH  •  July 31, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Fed Rate Hike + Negative GDP = Stock Market Rally

BEAR MARKET WATCH  •  July 22, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
It’s Like 2008 All Over Again, But Likely Worse

BEAR MARKET RISK  •  July 13, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Here Is Why Stocks Will Likely Fall Another 40%+

DISINFLATION TREND  •  July 5, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
From Inflation To Disinflation: Impact On Stocks, Bonds, Commodities And Bitcoin

COMMODITIES WATCH  •  June 27, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Is The Commodities Bull Market Over? See What This Key Indicator Is Telling Us Now

RECESSION WATCH  •  June 23, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Here Comes Another Recession, Thanks To The Fed

BEAR MARKET TECHNICALS  •  June 19, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Spot Stock Bear Market Selloffs And Rallies

BULL VS BEAR  •  June 9, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Three Key Reasons This Is A Bear Market Rally, Not A New Bull Market

INVESTING RISKS  •  June 1, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Biggest Risk Investors Face In Coming Years

RECESSION SIGNS  •  May 23, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Central Planning Disaster…The Fed Is Hiking Rates Into A Recession

BULL VS BEAR  •  May 15, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
3 Reasons Bear Market Rally Could Continue, Despite Recessionary Signs

BEAR MARKET SIGNS  •  May 7, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bear Market Rules Apply…Sell The Rallies Instead Of Buying The Dips

BEAR MARKET SIGNS  •  April 28, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
This Is Not Your Father’s Stock Bear Market

BONDS AND COMMODITIES  •  April 21, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Outlook For Bond And Commodity ETFs In The Coming Recession

SECTOR TRENDS  •  April 12, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Sector Performance Is Warning Us About The Market’s Direction

FED WATCH  •  April 8, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Can The Fed Predict Anything?

RECESSION WATCH  •  April 4, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Recession And Bear Market Countdown Has Started

FED WATCH  •  April 1, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Fed Can’t Control The Economy, But They Do Lower Living Standards

LONG-TERM RETURNS  •  March 27, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Will The Stock Market Really Be 50%+ LOWER In 12 Years?

BULL VS BEAR  •  March 20, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Strong Stock Rally Last Week, But Evidence Remains Bearish

BEAR MARKET SIGNS  •  March 10, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Objective Signs A Stock Bear Market Is Starting -- How To Profit Instead Of Lose

ETF TRENDS  •  March 2, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
War Is Helping Fuel The Commodity ETF Bull Market

BEAR MARKET SIGNS  •  February 21, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Warning: Widespread Shift To Bearishness Across Most Stocks And ETFs

SECTOR TRENDS  •  February 17, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Current Best And Worst Stock Sector ETFs

PROFIT FROM INFLATION  •  February 9, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Profit From Inflation With ETFs

INTEREST RATES AND STOCKS  •  February 1, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Proof That Major Stock Bear Markets Can Start Without Rising Interest Rates

BULL VS BEAR  •  January 24, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Market Crashing: Bull Market Correction Or Bear Market Beginning?

FED WATCH  •  January 18, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What Fed Rate Hikes Can Do To Stocks And ETFs In 2022

STOCK MARKET INDICATORS  •  January 8, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Rough Start To The Year Is Not Encouraging For Most Stocks And ETFs

LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS  •  December 31, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
2022 Perfect Storm: Global Slowdown + Fed Tightening?

SECTOR TRENDS  •  December 20, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Current Best And Worst Stock Sector ETFs For Long-Term Trend And Short-Term Trade

ASSET TRENDS  •  December 13, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Current Best and Worst ETFs For Long-Term Trend and Short-Term Trade

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  December 5, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Holiday Sales Continue On Stocks and “Risk-On” ETFs

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  November 27, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
“Red Friday” Sale On Stocks And Most ETFs

FED WATCH  •  November 19, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Market Says Interest Rate Hikes Are Coming, Whether The Fed Likes It Or Not

COMMODITIES  •  November 11, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Commodities Are The Only Major ETF Asset Class With Attractive Long-Term Returns

BULL VS BEAR  •  November 4, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bull Market Continues, But Stocks Will Likely Be 50%+ Lower In 12 Years!

BEATING THE MARKET  •  October 26, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Why Mutual Funds Don’t Work

CRYPTOCURRENCIES  •  October 19, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bull Case For Bitcoin ETFs — And The Best One To Buy Now

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  October 11, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Stock Market Is Weakening More Than Most Stock And ETF Investors Realize

BEAR MARKET PROFITS  •  September 30, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Trade ETFs To Maximize Bear Market Profits

BEAR MARKET PROFITS  •  September 22, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Identify Bear Markets With ETFs And Basic Technical Analysis

BEAR MARKET PROFITS  •  September 19, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Make Money -- Instead Of Lose Money -- In A Stock Bear Market

ETF STRATEGY  •  September 16, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Proof That ETF Strategies Using Technical Analysis Significantly Beat “Buy And Hold” Investing

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  September 10, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Good News And Bad News For Stocks And Stock ETFs On Three Different Time Frames

BEATING THE MARKET  •  September 1, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Three Ways To Beat The Market With Stocks And ETFs

BEAR MARKET RISK  •  August 28, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Here’s Why The Next Stock Bear Market Will Likely Be The Worst Since The Great Depression

ETF TRENDS  •  August 26, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
These Popular ETF “Inflation Hedges” Are Now Moving In Opposite Directions

ETF STRATEGY  •  August 24, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What Smart ETF Investors Need To Understand About Bitcoin, Gold and Stocks

SECTOR ETFS  •  August 19, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Sector ETFs With The Best and Worst Earnings Growth In 2021 and 2022

ECONOMICS 101  •  August 12, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Employment Remains At Recessionary Levels, Thanks To Government Subsidies

MONEY MISCHIEF  •  August 9, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Wise ETF And Stock Investors Focus On Money Supply, Not Employment

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  August 7, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bonds, Gold and Silver ETFs Are All In Bear Markets

MONEY MISCHIEF  •  July 31, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Commodity Stocks and ETFs At Risk As Money Supply and Industrial Production Growth Slows

STOCK MARKET TREND  •  July 24, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Market Uptrend Remains Intact, But Four Key Indicators Show Cracks Below The Surface

STOCK MARKET SENTIMENT  •  July 20, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Is Flashing Danger Signs

STOCK MARKET WARNING  •  July 14, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Investor Warning: US Stock Market Is Most Overvalued In History!

ASSET TRENDS  •  July 9, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What Major Asset (and ETF) SURPRISINGLY Has The Most Bearish Trend Right Now?

INFLATION DANGERS  •  June 30, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
3 Reasons ETF And Stock Investors Must Prepare To Profit From Rising Inflationary Pressures

DEBT DANGERS  •  June 23, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Government Debt Bomb Could Decimate Stock And ETF Investors Who Are Not Prepared

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  June 15, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What This Proven Indicator Is Telling Us About The Stock Market And Economic Trend

BOOM AND BUST INDICATORS  •  June 8, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What Every ETF And Stock Investor Should Know About Business Cycles

BOOM AND BUST INDICATORS  •  June 1, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Use The Yield Curve To Profit From Booms And Busts

CREATING WEALTH  •  May 25, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Achieve Financial Freedom By Investing In ETFs And Stocks

FREE MARKET INSIGHTS  •  May 19, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How Successful Stock And ETF Investing Benefits Society By Creating Wealth

CRYPTOCURRENCIES  •  May 13, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Trader Alert: 5 Bitcoin Bear Market Sell Signals

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  May 6, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Profit More Than Buy And Hold Investing

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  April 30, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Why Smart Stock Traders Always Use The 250-Day Moving Average