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BEAR MARKET WATCH  •  October 2, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger

What The 50% Collapse In Bond Prices Means For The Stock Market

BRAGA, PORTUGAL — One of the biggest and most pervasive myths on Wall Street is the myth of Fed omnipotence

Investors — amateurs and professionals alike — seem to believe that by using their various “tools” to create money out of thin air, the Federal Reserve can control the economy and financial markets any way they like. They believe the Fed doesn’t want a recession, so they can prevent one. They also believe the Fed doesn’t want a stock bear market, so they can prevent that too.

The Market Is Much Bigger Than The Fed

But the world doesn’t work that way. The economy and financial markets are much bigger and more powerful than the Fed. The reason the Fed appears to “work” in preventing recessions and bear markets is because recessions and bear markets are typically much shorter than economic expansions and bull markets. It’s as simple as that. The market is ultimately in control and the Fed just goes along for the ride.

Let’s compare the size of the Fed to the economy and financial markets to gain some perspective. The Fed’s total assets are $8 trillion. That is very big relative to my assets (yes, being able to create money out of thin air is very helpful in accumulating assets!), but it is still much smaller than the economy and stock and bond markets. US GDP is three times bigger and global GDP is 12.5 times bigger. The US stock market is nearly six times bigger and the global stock market is nearly 14 times bigger. The US bond market is six times bigger and the global stock market is 16 times bigger.

The Fed Has Been A Massive Failure

As we discussed here, the Fed was supposedly given three main goals by Congress: 1) maintain a stable price level, 2) maintain full employment and 3) maintain low interest rates.

If the Fed was really in control, we would always have something like 2% inflation (and why 2%? why not 0%? or negative 2%? or some other number?), 4% unemployment and 0.5% interest rates. The low interest rates are particularly important for the government, since they have so much debt.

But we obviously don’t always live in such an “ideal” world.

If the Fed was really in control, how did they allow the Great Depression of the 1930s to happen? Or the “stagflation” of the 1970s with double-digit inflation and interest rates? Or the Great Recession of 2008-2009? Or the high “transitory” (never-ending?) inflation we’ve had the past couple of years?

Perhaps most importantly for the Fed’s real constituents — the Federal government and the banks — how did the Fed allow interest rates on 10-Year Treasury bonds to skyrocket from 0.52% in 2020 to 4.59% now? How did the Fed allow Treasury bond prices to collapse 50% in three years? How did the Fed allow Federal interest expense to more than double to over $1 trillion in three years? How did the Fed allow the Federal interest expense to Federal tax receipts ratio to double to 15% over the past two years, as shown below?

Federal interest expense

How did the Fed allow the KBW Bank Index, Bank of America and Citigroup stocks to fall over 40% the past two years? 

Bank stocks

How did the Fed allow banks to lose over $500 billion on their investment securities in the past couple of years?

Bank losses

Source: Hussman Strategic Advisors

How did the Fed allow itself to generate a negative net worth of $2.4 trillion?

Fed losses

Source: Hussman Strategic Advisors

Maybe the Fed really cares about the American people. Maybe they feel really bad about causing the Great Depression, Great Recession, high unemployment, high inflation, etc. Or maybe they don’t care that much. Who knows what goes on in the minds of government central planning bureaucrats?

But it is clear that the Fed did not want to lose so much money for the government, banks and itself. If this doesn’t dispel the myth of Fed omnipotence in the minds of investors, we don’t know what will.

What The Bond Market Collapse Means For The Stock Market

The first important point about the 50% collapse in government bond prices is that since the Fed couldn’t prevent that, then they definitely won’t be able to prevent a 50% (or more) collapse in stock prices! 

The Fed does not have the stock market’s back, because the Fed simply is not powerful enough.

The second important point about the 50% collapse in government bond prices — and the accompanying rise in interest rates — is that it will likely lead to a major collapse in stock prices. This is due to the simple math of how stock prices are valued: the value of any stock is the value of all its future cash flows discounted back to the present at a market interest rate

Future cash flows, particularly over the next year or two, will be severely pressured by a recession, which is virtually guaranteed given the rapid rise in interest rates and the inverted yield curve, as we discussed in our recent Member Q&A and elsewhere. And much higher interest rates will dramatically reduce the present value of those future cash flows.

How much will this pressure stock prices? As we discussed in detail in our recent Member Q&A “What do current stock market valuation levels imply for future returns?”, the answer is: a lot!

Economist and fund manager John Hussman has done excellent work on stock market valuations and potential downside risk. As Hussman summarizes his chart below, “Historically, the completion of a full market cycle has typically restored prospective S&P 500 total returns to the higher of a) their run-of-the-mill 10% historical norm or b) 2% above prevailing Treasury bond yields. At present, the S&P 500 would have to lose about 64% of its value to restore those norms.” That implies the S&P 500 falling to about 1600!

Hussman losses

Source: Hussman Strategic Advisors

Investment Implications

Investors are engaged in a massive case of wishful thinking when they believe the Fed can prevent a recession and stock bear market, given all historical evidence to the contrary. 

The huge rise in interest rates over the past couple of years, driven by the highest inflation rates in 40 years as a result of the Fed’s incredibly irresponsible 40% increase in the money supply in response to a virus, is virtually guaranteed to cause a major recession and bear market, as we warned about over two years ago

Now is the time to buckle up and prepare to profit — instead of lose — from the latest Fed-created disaster.

For more on the Fed and what investors need to know about economics, please see our Special Report entitled "UNDERSTANDING ECONOMICS TO INVEST FOR BULL & BEAR PROFITS".

 Previous Issues  

BEAR MARKET SIGNS  •  September 25, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Jay “Wronger For Longer” Powell Talks Tough In The Face Of A Recession

STAGFLATION SIGNS  •  September 18, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation Accelerates And Stocks Break Down As Yellen Dreams Of A Softish Landing

RED FLAGS  •  September 11, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Warning Signs From 2 Key Economic Indicators And FANG+ Stocks

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK  •  September 4, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation And Unemployment Take A Turn For The Worse

FED WATCH  •  August 28, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Fed Forced To Keep Raising Rates Into Recession With Inflation Accelerating

BEAR MARKET WATCH  •  August 21, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bear Market Resumes As Recession Looms

FED POLICY  •  August 14, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Eliminate The Boom-Bust Business Cycle

CREDIT AND HOUSING  •  August 7, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bank Credit, Housing And Manufacturing Are Shouting “Recession!”

RECESSION RISK  •  July 31, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Investors Ignore Rising Recession Risk As Optimism Hits New Highs

STOCK MARKET WATCH  •  July 24, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What The Stock Market And Investor Sentiment Is Telling Us Now

MARKET OUTLOOK  •  July 17, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Slowing Inflation Is Bullish For Stocks...Or Is It?

FED POLICY  •  July 10, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
5 Ways The Fed Has Made The Economy Worse

INFLATIONARY RECESSION WATCH  •  July 3, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation Remains Well Above Fed’s Target As Recession Timing Nears

BEAR MARKET RISK  •  June 26, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Recession Looming + Bearish Stock Market Breadth = New Lows To Come

FED WATCH  •  June 19, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Fed’s 110-Year Track Record of Bureaucratic Central Planning

RECESSION WATCH  •  June 12, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Signs A Recession May Have Already Started

STOCK MARKET INDICATORS  •  June 5, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Current Stock Market Rally Is On Shaky Ground

FED WATCH  •  May 30, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Accelerating Inflation Is Pressuring Fed To Keep Hiking Rates

WARNING SIGNS  •  May 23, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Leading Economic Indicators And Market Internals Are Flashing Red

RECESSION WATCH  •  May 16, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Jay “Softish Landing” Powell Will Also Be Wrong About Recession

US DEBT CRISIS  •  May 8, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Will The US Government Default On Its Debt This Year?

MARKET OUTLOOK  •  May 1, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Two Key Factors Preventing A New Bull Market

LEADING INDICATORS  •  April 22, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Recession Signals Intensify As Bear Market Rally Fades

FED WATCH  •  April 16, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation STILL Remains High, Forcing The Fed To Tighten Into A Recession Even They Expect

RECESSION WATCH  •  April 9, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
7 Signs Employment Is Weakening With Manufacturing In A Recession

BEAR MARKET INDICATORS  •  April 2, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Is This Just Another Bear Market Rally?

BEAR MARKET WATCH  •  March 23, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What Could Go Wrong With Fed Tightening Into A Banking Crisis And Recession?

BANKING CRISIS  •  March 13, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Banking Crisis Implications For Investors And The “Softish Landing” Dream

RISING INTEREST RATES  •  March 3, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Do Investors Understand What Happens When Interest Rates Rise?

RECESSION WATCH  •  February 26, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
8 Stages Of Recession Point To Crash Landing, Not “Softish Landing” (Part 2)

RECESSION WATCH  •  February 22, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
8 Stages Of Recession Point To Crash Landing, Not “Softish Landing” (Part 1)

EARNINGS OUTLOOK  •  February 12, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Wall Street Bullishness Unfazed By Recessionary Earnings Outlook

MARKET OUTLOOK  •  February 2, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Powell Fuels Stock Rally With Hopes For A “Softish Landing”

RECESSION WATCH  •  January 26, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Credit Card Crisis Coming As Layoffs Mount (Part 2)

RECESSION WATCH  •  January 22, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Credit Card Crisis Coming As Layoffs Mount (Part 1)

INFLATION WATCH  •  January 12, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Headline Inflation Slowed, But High Underlying Inflation Keeps Fed Tightening

RECESSION WATCH  •  January 4, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Money Supply And Manufacturing Declines Add Fuel To The Bear Market Fire

STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK  •  December 27, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Can Investors Handle The Truth…About Stock Market Downside Potential?

BEAR MARKET SELLOFF  •  December 18, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Powell “Pivot” To “Pain” Kicks Off Next Major Bear Market Selloff

RECESSION WATCH  •  December 12, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Recession Signs Abound As Market Rally Peaks

INFLATION RISK  •  December 7, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Fed Likely Forced To Fight High Inflation For Many Years To Come

BEAR MARKET UPDATE  •  November 29, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bullish Sentiment Signals Major Stock Selloff Likely Coming Soon

EARNINGS ESTIMATES  •  November 19, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Prepare For The Coming Collapse In Wall Street Earnings Estimates

BEAR MARKET RALLY  •  November 11, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation “Beat” Causes Investors To Forget The 4 Most Dangerous Words In Investing

BEAR MARKET DURATION  •  November 3, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How Long Will This Bear Market And Recession Last?

BEAR MARKET LOSSES  •  October 25, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
3 Ways To Estimate Stock Bear Market Downside Potential

INFLATIONARY BEAR MARKET  •  October 17, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Accelerating Inflation Creates Stock Bear Market Opportunities

BEAR MARKET INDICATORS  •  October 9, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Is The Stock Market About To Crash?

GOVERNMENT DEBT WATCH  •  October 3, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The US Government Is Heading Toward A Major Debt Crisis

BEAR MARKET INTENSIFIES  •  September 24, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Fed Pivots To Even More “Pain” For Stocks And The Economy

FED WATCH  •  September 14, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
High Inflation Continues To Force Fed To Cause “Pain”

COMMODITIES  •  September 5, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Oil And Commodities Bear Market Is Likely Just Beginning

RECESSION WATCH  •  August 28, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Powell’s “Pivot” And The Top 10 Signs Of An Impending Recession

HOUSING WATCH  •  August 17, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Housing Bear Market Will Help Cause Great Recession 2.0

BEAR MARKET WATCH  •  August 9, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Why The Next Major Bear Market Selloff Is Likely Coming Soon

RECESSION WATCH  •  July 31, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Fed Rate Hike + Negative GDP = Stock Market Rally

BEAR MARKET WATCH  •  July 22, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
It’s Like 2008 All Over Again, But Likely Worse

BEAR MARKET RISK  •  July 13, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Here Is Why Stocks Will Likely Fall Another 40%+

DISINFLATION TREND  •  July 5, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
From Inflation To Disinflation: Impact On Stocks, Bonds, Commodities And Bitcoin

COMMODITIES WATCH  •  June 27, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Is The Commodities Bull Market Over? See What This Key Indicator Is Telling Us Now

RECESSION WATCH  •  June 23, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Here Comes Another Recession, Thanks To The Fed

BEAR MARKET TECHNICALS  •  June 19, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Spot Stock Bear Market Selloffs And Rallies

BULL VS BEAR  •  June 9, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Three Key Reasons This Is A Bear Market Rally, Not A New Bull Market

INVESTING RISKS  •  June 1, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Biggest Risk Investors Face In Coming Years

RECESSION SIGNS  •  May 23, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Central Planning Disaster…The Fed Is Hiking Rates Into A Recession

BULL VS BEAR  •  May 15, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
3 Reasons Bear Market Rally Could Continue, Despite Recessionary Signs

BEAR MARKET SIGNS  •  May 7, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bear Market Rules Apply…Sell The Rallies Instead Of Buying The Dips

BEAR MARKET SIGNS  •  April 28, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
This Is Not Your Father’s Stock Bear Market

BONDS AND COMMODITIES  •  April 21, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Outlook For Bond And Commodity ETFs In The Coming Recession

SECTOR TRENDS  •  April 12, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Sector Performance Is Warning Us About The Market’s Direction

FED WATCH  •  April 8, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Can The Fed Predict Anything?

RECESSION WATCH  •  April 4, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Recession And Bear Market Countdown Has Started

FED WATCH  •  April 1, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Fed Can’t Control The Economy, But They Do Lower Living Standards

LONG-TERM RETURNS  •  March 27, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Will The Stock Market Really Be 50%+ LOWER In 12 Years?

BULL VS BEAR  •  March 20, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Strong Stock Rally Last Week, But Evidence Remains Bearish

BEAR MARKET SIGNS  •  March 10, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Objective Signs A Stock Bear Market Is Starting -- How To Profit Instead Of Lose

ETF TRENDS  •  March 2, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
War Is Helping Fuel The Commodity ETF Bull Market

BEAR MARKET SIGNS  •  February 21, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Warning: Widespread Shift To Bearishness Across Most Stocks And ETFs

SECTOR TRENDS  •  February 17, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Current Best And Worst Stock Sector ETFs

PROFIT FROM INFLATION  •  February 9, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Profit From Inflation With ETFs

INTEREST RATES AND STOCKS  •  February 1, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Proof That Major Stock Bear Markets Can Start Without Rising Interest Rates

BULL VS BEAR  •  January 24, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Market Crashing: Bull Market Correction Or Bear Market Beginning?

FED WATCH  •  January 18, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What Fed Rate Hikes Can Do To Stocks And ETFs In 2022

STOCK MARKET INDICATORS  •  January 8, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Rough Start To The Year Is Not Encouraging For Most Stocks And ETFs

LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS  •  December 31, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
2022 Perfect Storm: Global Slowdown + Fed Tightening?

SECTOR TRENDS  •  December 20, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Current Best And Worst Stock Sector ETFs For Long-Term Trend And Short-Term Trade

ASSET TRENDS  •  December 13, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Current Best and Worst ETFs For Long-Term Trend and Short-Term Trade

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  December 5, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Holiday Sales Continue On Stocks and “Risk-On” ETFs

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  November 27, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
“Red Friday” Sale On Stocks And Most ETFs

FED WATCH  •  November 19, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Market Says Interest Rate Hikes Are Coming, Whether The Fed Likes It Or Not

COMMODITIES  •  November 11, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Commodities Are The Only Major ETF Asset Class With Attractive Long-Term Returns

BULL VS BEAR  •  November 4, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bull Market Continues, But Stocks Will Likely Be 50%+ Lower In 12 Years!

BEATING THE MARKET  •  October 26, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Why Mutual Funds Don’t Work

CRYPTOCURRENCIES  •  October 19, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bull Case For Bitcoin ETFs — And The Best One To Buy Now

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  October 11, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Stock Market Is Weakening More Than Most Stock And ETF Investors Realize

BEAR MARKET PROFITS  •  September 30, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Trade ETFs To Maximize Bear Market Profits

BEAR MARKET PROFITS  •  September 22, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Identify Bear Markets With ETFs And Basic Technical Analysis

BEAR MARKET PROFITS  •  September 19, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Make Money -- Instead Of Lose Money -- In A Stock Bear Market

ETF STRATEGY  •  September 16, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Proof That ETF Strategies Using Technical Analysis Significantly Beat “Buy And Hold” Investing

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  September 10, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Good News And Bad News For Stocks And Stock ETFs On Three Different Time Frames

BEATING THE MARKET  •  September 1, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Three Ways To Beat The Market With Stocks And ETFs

BEAR MARKET RISK  •  August 28, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Here’s Why The Next Stock Bear Market Will Likely Be The Worst Since The Great Depression

ETF TRENDS  •  August 26, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
These Popular ETF “Inflation Hedges” Are Now Moving In Opposite Directions

ETF STRATEGY  •  August 24, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What Smart ETF Investors Need To Understand About Bitcoin, Gold and Stocks

SECTOR ETFS  •  August 19, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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ECONOMICS 101  •  August 12, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Employment Remains At Recessionary Levels, Thanks To Government Subsidies

MONEY MISCHIEF  •  August 9, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  August 7, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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MONEY MISCHIEF  •  July 31, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Commodity Stocks and ETFs At Risk As Money Supply and Industrial Production Growth Slows

STOCK MARKET TREND  •  July 24, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Market Uptrend Remains Intact, But Four Key Indicators Show Cracks Below The Surface

STOCK MARKET SENTIMENT  •  July 20, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Is Flashing Danger Signs

STOCK MARKET WARNING  •  July 14, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Investor Warning: US Stock Market Is Most Overvalued In History!

ASSET TRENDS  •  July 9, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What Major Asset (and ETF) SURPRISINGLY Has The Most Bearish Trend Right Now?

INFLATION DANGERS  •  June 30, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
3 Reasons ETF And Stock Investors Must Prepare To Profit From Rising Inflationary Pressures

DEBT DANGERS  •  June 23, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Government Debt Bomb Could Decimate Stock And ETF Investors Who Are Not Prepared

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  June 15, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What This Proven Indicator Is Telling Us About The Stock Market And Economic Trend

BOOM AND BUST INDICATORS  •  June 8, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What Every ETF And Stock Investor Should Know About Business Cycles

BOOM AND BUST INDICATORS  •  June 1, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Use The Yield Curve To Profit From Booms And Busts

CREATING WEALTH  •  May 25, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Achieve Financial Freedom By Investing In ETFs And Stocks

FREE MARKET INSIGHTS  •  May 19, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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CRYPTOCURRENCIES  •  May 13, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  May 6, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  April 30, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Why Smart Stock Traders Always Use The 250-Day Moving Average