What impact is Trump having on the economy so far?
Small businesses account for about 45% of US GDP. The monthly NFIB small business survey provides very useful and timely insights on what is really going on with this key segment of the economy.
The latest NFIB small business survey shows small businesses have become much more optimistic due to the “pro-business” policies of the Trump administration, as discussed in the quote below. The quote also discusses how overall employment has been maintained by aggressive government deficit spending and hiring, as well as increased consumer borrowing, none of which are healthy for the economy long-term.
According to the NFIB:
“Small business owners greeted the new year with a surge in optimism. Seventeen percent (seasonally adjusted) now view the current period as a good time to expand substantially, up from just 4 percent a few months ago. A seasonally adjusted net 20 percent expect real sales gains compared to a net negative 18 percent a few months earlier. Better business conditions were expected by a seasonally adjusted net 47 percent, up from a net negative 13 percent just four months ago (net of negative responses). Reports of unfilled job openings and plans to hire to fill them remained historically high. Owners have been unsuccessful filling them over the past four years, finding few qualified applicants while government related hiring soared. Tough competition.”
President Trump hit the ground running, and small business owners are anxiously watching with expectations of preserving the TCJA tax cuts and a reduction in regulations, especially those that increase the cost of production but produce little benefit to users and consumers. New homes constructed are not allowed to install natural gas capabilities in some locations, there’s a push to transition to electric cars, and all this puts more pressure on the electricity grid which is already unable to handle the demand for electricity. The electricity demands of AI are going to be huge, exacerbating the problem. Policies must be promulgated that make sense given the capabilities of the economy and businesses to deliver, centered on relying on the private sector to find and implement solutions.
The economy enters 2025 in decent condition but with a slowing momentum. The widely predicted recession in 2024 never showed up due to heavy government spending and hiring, and consumer spending financed with higher debt levels. The inflation rate eased from its 9 percent rate in 2022, falling to just below 3 percent, but still above the Fed’s target of 2 percent. In Trump’s last administration, the rate averaged 1.5 percent, powered by low energy and oil prices, something Trump seems to be planning again. The Fed left its policy rate unchanged in January (Britain cut theirs) at 4.5-4.75 percent, and the 10-year Treasury bond has been rising in yield, not good for credit costs. So, the stage is set, players are taking positions, we’ll see how this story develops.”
Small Businesses Are More Optimistic, But…
The NFIB Optimism Index dropped by 2.3 points to 102.8 in January, as this chart shows. This was the third straight month above the 51-year average of 98. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, seven fell, two were unchanged and one rose. The Uncertainty Index rose 14 points to 100 after two months of decline. That is the third highest reading, which shows there is still significant uncertainty about Trump’s policies, the likelihood of them being enacted and the impact to the economy. It remains to be seen if the improvements in many of these small business metrics will be short-lived due to businesses trying to front-run orders ahead of new tariffs or if it will be sustainable.
This chart shows most of the improvement in the Optimism Index is due to “soft” factors such as expected business conditions and expected sales, rather than “hard” factors such as job creation plans and earnings. Soft conditions are more uncertain.
A net negative 14% of all small business owners reported higher sales over the past three months, a 1 point decline from December. While the net percent of small businesses expecting higher real sales fell 2 points to 20%, that is still a dramatic improvement from a few months ago, as this chart shows.
A net negative 25% of owners reported positive profits, a 1 point improvement from December. That is the highest level in over a year, but still a very negative number.
Small business job openings continue to decline, but planned job openings are rising, as shown in this chart.
Inflation still remains a problem for small businesses, but it is less of a problem than it had been. A net 18% of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business due to higher input and labor costs, but that is down 2 points from December and matches labor quality as the biggest issue. That is the lowest level in over three years.
Recent Broad Economic Indicators Are Mixed
Broader economic indicators such as retail sales and industrial production are mixed lately. Real retail sales ticked down from a 1.4% increase in December to a 1.2% increase in January. As the chart below shows, real retail sales have been flattish for nearly three years.
Industrial production rose to 2% in January, up from 0.3% in December and negative 0.9% in November. This is a notable improvement from the flattish industrial production seen over the past couple of years, as shown here.
However, capacity utilization ticked down to 76.2% in January from 76.4% in December. It was 78% in March 2022. As shown below, capacity utilization has fallen at a pace typically seen in recessions.
Investment Implications
Small businesses are more optimistic due to the Trump presidency, but sales, earnings and job openings remain weak and inflation is still a major problem. Retail sales and industrial production are improving modestly, but remain weaker than normal. Will Trump-inspired optimism be enough to nullify the most aggressive Fed rates hikes in 40 years? If it is not, that will be a major problem for stocks trading at all-time high valuation levels.
What are consumer confidence and leading economic indexes telling us?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How is housing demand and what are the investment implications?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Will the Fed blame Trump for higher inflation?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Is the rise in bond yields a bullish sign?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Will the Fed HIKE rates due to rising inflation?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Why are so many stock sectors selling off recently?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How do gold ETFs work, what is gold seasonality and how is the current trend?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Why are new home sales and home prices falling?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are Fed rate cuts and yield curve un-inversion telling us?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Why is Warren Buffett selling so much Apple stock?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What do the latest Fed Beige Book and declining oil prices tell us about the economy?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How can there be a recession with strong retail sales?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What do the latest manufacturing surveys tell us about the economic outlook?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How do gold, silver and precious metal mining stocks perform in a recession?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is industrial production, retail sales and housing data telling us about the stock market outlook?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Why is the Fed going to cut rates this month…and will it work?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Can China help prevent a global recession?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Is the latest inflation data telling the Fed to cut rates?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What does the latest yen carry trade disaster mean for investors?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Why will the Fed cut rates with inflation still well above 2%?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What do you think of the recent weakness in NVIDIA stock?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What does the recent PMI data tell us about the likelihood of recession?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Is AI ushering in a new era for tech stocks and the market?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What does the recent disappointing retail sales data tell us about the stock & ETF outlook?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How can there be a recession with incomes growing?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is the Duncan Leading Indicator telling us about the economic outlook?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Why did The Conference Board rescind their recession forecast?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is Warren Buffett telling stock and ETF investors with his large cash hoard?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What does the latest GDP and inflation data mean for stocks and ETFs?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are your thoughts on the recent undercover interview with a Fed economist?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What does the latest inflation report mean for Fed policy and markets?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How can there be a recession with the unemployment rate so low?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Is the Fed inflating the market because it’s an election year?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Why are small cap stocks lagging large cap stocks?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How can you see a recession coming, while the Fed and others are so bullish?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What do you think about the latest US Leading Economic Index report?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are the risks of buying the Magnificent Seven stocks?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Are there any signs that inflation will reaccelerate and the Fed won’t cut rates?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How can there be a recession with low initial unemployment claims?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are key signs of a possible trend change for the stock market?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is the risk inflation re-accelerates in 2024?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Do you expect the stock market to generate 10%+ long-term returns?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Why isn’t the Fed expecting a recession?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are some important recession signs Wall Street is ignoring now?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How can there be a recession when the consumer is so strong?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What do the latest employment indicators tell us about the economic outlook?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is the current outlook for the housing market?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Is Bitcoin going to the moon?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Are the “magnificent seven” tech stocks a safe place to hide going forward?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Does the latest strong jobs report prove a “soft landing” is coming?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How long and severe do you expect this recession to be?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How can there be a recession with employment still growing?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Given the current seemingly mixed signals in the markets, what should a prudent investor should do?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is the best stock index to monitor for bull and bear trends?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What do current stock market valuation levels imply for future returns?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What will the likely impact be from the US credit rating downgrade?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are the implications of the latest Fed rate hike and inflation data?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are key economic metrics telling us now about a recession?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are the investment implications of the latest employment report?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is the outlook for Fed rate hikes going forward?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are the implications of the latest CPI report for the stock market outlook?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Why is China lending so aggressively to developing countries and what is the likely outcome?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are the most important recession indicators to focus on now?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Can NVIDIA and AI prevent a bear market?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What does the latest retail sales report tell us about the economy?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What does the latest jobs report say about the employment outlook?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Why is money supply growth important and what is it telling us now?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Who will likely suffer most from the current banking crisis?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is the likely success of BRICS countries to replace the dollar and what are the implications for the US?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Since balance sheets are healthier than before the Great Recession, won’t this recession be mild?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Will the banking crisis cause the Fed to “pivot” and cut interest rates?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What do you make of Fed Chair Powell’s recent comments?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are the implications of the recent stock market selloff?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are the economic and investment implications of the latest inflation data?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Do you expect a global recession, as well as a US recession?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Is this stock market rally the beginning of a new bull market?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How are investment opportunities different between bull and bear markets?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are the implications of the December employment report?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is the current outlook for US home prices?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are some low-risk investment alternatives with a decent return?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What do you think of the market’s reaction to Powell’s recent comments?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Are there any signs a US recession has ALREADY started?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is the best indicator for anticipating and trading bear market rallies?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
When do you expect the Fed to “pivot” and cut interest rates?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Is it a good time to invest in real estate if higher inflation and interest rates cause a higher demand for renting?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Given OPEC’s recent oil production cut, do you still believe oil markets have more bear market downside to come?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What do ETF investors need to know about K-1 tax forms?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What caused the current high inflation and what did the Fed do wrong?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What does the European energy crisis mean for investors?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is Quantitative Tightening and how will it impact financial markets?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are the best and worst stock sectors in a bear market?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How have your forecasts worked out over the past year? (Part 2)
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How have your forecasts worked out over the past year? (Part 1)
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How can you use volume as a technical indicator for investing?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What problems are caused when banks create money out of thin air?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Are dividend growth funds a good long-term investment at the moment?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What do you think of Yellen’s comments that we will not have a recession?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Do stocks always outperform T-bills and inflation in the long run?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Are inverse ETFs worth considering as investment vehicles?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Any thoughts on Bernanke’s recent inflation and recession comments?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Is Bitcoin or gold a better inflation hedge now?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Does the negative GDP report mean we’re already in a recession?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Will the next bear market be one big disaster or a series of crises? And what will the Fed do about it?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Is the Fed really trying to crash the housing, bond and stock markets?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is different between now and the 2020 stock market crash?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
In your “Stocks & Commodities” article, there were 4 times since 2009 that met your “sell short” criteria but were not major bear markets. Thoughts?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are credit markets telling us now about stocks and ETFs?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What impact will the Russia/Ukraine war have and is the stock market correction over?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How are major ETF asset classes looking on your Trend and Trade analysis?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What does the latest inflation report mean for interest rates and the economy?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Is the stock market rally over?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What do your measures of stock market sentiment and internals tell us about the outlook for stocks and ETFs?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are technical trend lines telling us now about stocks and ETFs?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Is it better to invest in Growth or Value stocks now?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is the best indicator to determine if a stock or ETF is “overbought” or “oversold”?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What can the “Santa Claus rally” and “January Barometer” tell us about the outlook for the stock market in 2022?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How will the latest Fed announcement to fight inflation impact stocks and ETFs?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is the VIX, why is it important and what is it telling us now?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How will new Covid variants impact the economy and stock market?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What do you think about investing in TIPS versus traditional Treasury bond ETFs given high inflation?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are the implications of high inflation for stocks, ETFs and the economy?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Are we in another housing bubble?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Why is EPS growth so important in stock investing?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What can stock and ETF investors learn from the fact that Japan’s stock market is still well below its highs of 30+ years ago?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Do you think the economy is heading towards “stagflation”?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Your MarketWatch.com interview seemed very bearish. Are there any stocks or ETFs you recommend buying right now?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Shouldn’t stock and ETF investors focus on current money supply growth, since it drives the economy and stock market?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Why shouldn't investors just follow the simple Wall Street rule of “don’t fight the Fed”?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How can you make money — instead of lose money — in a major bear market with ETFs?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How important is stock market seasonality for stock and ETF investors, particularly in September and October?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How concerned should stock and ETF investors be about margin debt levels?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Are US Treasury Bond ETFs safe long-term investments?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are the key characteristics of winning stocks?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are the best and worst trending stock sector ETFs right now?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is the likelihood the next bear market and recession will be even worse than the Great Recession of 2008-2009?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What impact will the US government’s stimulus package have on the economy and stocks?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
I've never invested before in my life. How do I start?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is wrong with a “buy and hold” or “asset allocation” investment strategy?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
Why is it so important to keep investment costs low on stocks and ETFs and how can that be done?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is the best way to invest to retire early?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are the best ways for investors to profit from stock bear markets, such as the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What are the historical long-term returns of stocks, bonds, bills, REITs, housing, gold, commodities and inflation?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How can technical analysis be helpful to profit from bull and bear markets in stocks and ETFs?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
What is the primary cause of bull and bear markets in stocks and ETFs?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How do you use economic indicators to determine the outlook for the economy, stocks and ETFs?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.
How can you estimate the long-term returns of stocks, bonds, REITs and other financial assets?
You must be a registered user to view this answer. Register for FREE here.