Investing Insights
Our most popular feature by far, Investing Insights unleashes the experienced minds of Jon and our team, sharing exclusive information & education we believe smart investors should know BEFORE risking funds in current markets. We share fresh insights at least weekly -- but sometimes more frequently -- as our proprietary economic and technically-driven models & indicators flash bull, bear, turning points, risk flags, wobbles, bubble alerts, accelerating profit opportunities and much, much more. Our members can learn a great deal from this section and it can help both grow AND preserve your nest egg and trading profits. Since you won’t find these insights anywhere else on the web, we encourage you to bookmark this feature and check back often.
EMPLOYMENT WATCH December 11, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Unemployment Rate Signals A Recession Has Likely Begun
VENICE, ITALY — Jobs growth continues to weaken as the economy heads into a recession, as it slowed from 3.4% in November 2002 and 1.87% in October to 1.8% in November.
While overall jobs increased 199K and beat expectations by 16K, private cyclical jobs (excluding acyclical government, education and health jobs) increased by only 51K, with 33K of the increase coming from the ending of auto strikes. The prior two months were revised down by 35K, continuing the downward revisions we have seen this year.
Unemployment Rate And The Coming Recession
The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% from 3.9% last month. The unemployment rate is important for the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, which is one of the simplest and most popular coincident (not leading) recession indicators in economics.
The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator confirms a recession is in progress when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.5% or more from the minimum of the three-month average of the previous 12 months. This is shown in the chart below, with recessions shaded gray.

Historically, this indicator has been triggered about three or four months after a recession has started, partly since the employment report is one month delayed.
The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator is currently at 0.3. That is above the average of 0.19 seen at the beginning of previous recessions, which suggests a recession may have already started.
This is not surprising to us — but it will be to Wall Street — given the inverted yield curve, declining money supply, declining leading economic indexes and declining leading employment indicators.
Leading Employment Indicators Point To Recession
In addition to the Conference Board Leading Employment Index, which has been declining for 12 straight months, there are several other leading employment indicators that are pointing to recession.
Temporary employment is a leading employment indicator because it is easier to lay off temporary employees than it is full-time employees. As shown below, temporary employment growth is falling at a pace only seen in recessions.

Other leading employment indicators include the number of permanent jobs losers, trucker job losses and the number of job openings.
The increase in the number of permanent jobs losers is also rising at a rate only seen in recessions, as this chart shows.

This next chart shows the number of truckers is falling at a rate typically seen in recessions.

Job openings fell to 8.7 million this month, down from 9.35 million last month and below expectations of 9.3 million. As this chart shows, the S&P 500 (red line) historically tracks job openings (blue line), but they have disconnected this year due to the narrow “magnificent seven” rally.

Inflation Remains Too High For Fed Rate Cuts
Average wage growth was 4%, double the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, Core PCE inflation, increased 3.5% last month, 1.75 times faster than the Fed’s target. Median PCE inflation — which the Fed believes “can provide a better signal of the underlying inflation trend than either the all-items PCE price index or the PCE price index excluding food and energy (also known as the core PCE price index)” — increased 4.2%, more than double the Fed’s target.
If we can believe Jay “Transitory Inflation” Powell’s stated comments (which admittedly is a big “if”), he is more focused on bringing inflation down rather than avoiding a recession to secure his “legacy” as an “inflation fighter” (the same inflation he created when he increased the money supply an unprecedented 40% in response to the covid government-imposed lockdowns).
Thus, the market may be getting ahead of itself in pricing in rate cuts, unless the economy is going into a major recession in 2024, which appears likely to us.
Recessions and rate cuts have not been bullish for stocks or other risk assets historically, including in the early 2000s or 2008-2009.
Buckle Up For A Hard Landing
The chart below from Bank of America shows the average S&P 500 returns around recessions since 1871. We are currently at the point on the left, as the yield curve is beginning to steepen. Typically credit conditions tighten next and then the Fed cuts rates as they panic over a recession becoming obvious. Then stocks fall significantly. We recommend buckling up for the "hard landing" and roller coaster ride ahead.

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BEAR MARKET SIGNS December 4, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Investors Are Ignoring This Key Recession Indicator At Their Peril
INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY November 27, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Investor Complacency At Highest Levels Since Early 2020 In The Face Of Recession
MACRO OUTLOOK November 20, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Why Wall Street’s Next — And Bigger — Fear Will Not Be Inflation
CREDIT WATCH November 13, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Credit Crunch Drives Manufacturing Into Recession
RECESSION TIMING November 6, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
2 Indicators Show Recession Is Much Closer Than Wall Street Expects
EMPLOYMENT WATCH October 30, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Proven Leading Indicators Point To Rising Unemployment Coming Soon
LEADING INDICATORS October 23, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Leading Economic Indexes And CEOs Are Predicting Recession
BEAR MARKET SIGNS October 16, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Why Jamie Dimon Is Right And Paul Krugman Is Wrong
INFLATION IMPACT October 9, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation Remains Well Above Fed’s Target As Stocks Break Support
BEAR MARKET WATCH October 2, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
What The 50% Collapse In Bond Prices Means For The Stock Market
BEAR MARKET SIGNS September 25, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Jay “Wronger For Longer” Powell Talks Tough In The Face Of A Recession
STAGFLATION SIGNS September 18, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation Accelerates And Stocks Break Down As Yellen Dreams Of A Softish Landing
RED FLAGS September 11, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Warning Signs From 2 Key Economic Indicators And FANG+ Stocks
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK September 4, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation And Unemployment Take A Turn For The Worse
FED WATCH August 28, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Fed Forced To Keep Raising Rates Into Recession With Inflation Accelerating
BEAR MARKET WATCH August 21, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Bear Market Resumes As Recession Looms
FED POLICY August 14, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Eliminate The Boom-Bust Business Cycle
CREDIT AND HOUSING August 7, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Bank Credit, Housing And Manufacturing Are Shouting “Recession!”
RECESSION RISK July 31, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Investors Ignore Rising Recession Risk As Optimism Hits New Highs
STOCK MARKET WATCH July 24, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
What The Stock Market And Investor Sentiment Is Telling Us Now
MARKET OUTLOOK July 17, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Slowing Inflation Is Bullish For Stocks...Or Is It?
FED POLICY July 10, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
5 Ways The Fed Has Made The Economy Worse
INFLATIONARY RECESSION WATCH July 3, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation Remains Well Above Fed’s Target As Recession Timing Nears
BEAR MARKET RISK June 26, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Recession Looming + Bearish Stock Market Breadth = New Lows To Come
FED WATCH June 19, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
The Fed’s 110-Year Track Record of Bureaucratic Central Planning
RECESSION WATCH June 12, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Signs A Recession May Have Already Started
STOCK MARKET INDICATORS June 5, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Current Stock Market Rally Is On Shaky Ground
FED WATCH May 30, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Accelerating Inflation Is Pressuring Fed To Keep Hiking Rates
WARNING SIGNS May 23, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Leading Economic Indicators And Market Internals Are Flashing Red
RECESSION WATCH May 16, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Jay “Softish Landing” Powell Will Also Be Wrong About Recession
US DEBT CRISIS May 8, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Will The US Government Default On Its Debt This Year?
MARKET OUTLOOK May 1, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Two Key Factors Preventing A New Bull Market
LEADING INDICATORS April 22, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Recession Signals Intensify As Bear Market Rally Fades
FED WATCH April 16, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation STILL Remains High, Forcing The Fed To Tighten Into A Recession Even They Expect
RECESSION WATCH April 9, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
7 Signs Employment Is Weakening With Manufacturing In A Recession
BEAR MARKET INDICATORS April 2, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Is This Just Another Bear Market Rally?
BEAR MARKET WATCH March 23, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
What Could Go Wrong With Fed Tightening Into A Banking Crisis And Recession?
BANKING CRISIS March 13, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Banking Crisis Implications For Investors And The “Softish Landing” Dream
RISING INTEREST RATES March 3, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Do Investors Understand What Happens When Interest Rates Rise?
RECESSION WATCH February 26, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
8 Stages Of Recession Point To Crash Landing, Not “Softish Landing” (Part 2)
RECESSION WATCH February 22, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
8 Stages Of Recession Point To Crash Landing, Not “Softish Landing” (Part 1)
EARNINGS OUTLOOK February 12, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Wall Street Bullishness Unfazed By Recessionary Earnings Outlook
MARKET OUTLOOK February 2, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Powell Fuels Stock Rally With Hopes For A “Softish Landing”
RECESSION WATCH January 26, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Credit Card Crisis Coming As Layoffs Mount (Part 2)
RECESSION WATCH January 22, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Credit Card Crisis Coming As Layoffs Mount (Part 1)
INFLATION WATCH January 12, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Headline Inflation Slowed, But High Underlying Inflation Keeps Fed Tightening
RECESSION WATCH January 4, 2023 Jon Wolfenbarger
Money Supply And Manufacturing Declines Add Fuel To The Bear Market Fire
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK December 27, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Can Investors Handle The Truth…About Stock Market Downside Potential?
BEAR MARKET SELLOFF December 18, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Powell “Pivot” To “Pain” Kicks Off Next Major Bear Market Selloff
RECESSION WATCH December 12, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Recession Signs Abound As Market Rally Peaks
INFLATION RISK December 7, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Fed Likely Forced To Fight High Inflation For Many Years To Come
BEAR MARKET UPDATE November 29, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Bullish Sentiment Signals Major Stock Selloff Likely Coming Soon
EARNINGS ESTIMATES November 19, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Prepare For The Coming Collapse In Wall Street Earnings Estimates
BEAR MARKET RALLY November 11, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Inflation “Beat” Causes Investors To Forget The 4 Most Dangerous Words In Investing
BEAR MARKET DURATION November 3, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
How Long Will This Bear Market And Recession Last?
BEAR MARKET LOSSES October 25, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
3 Ways To Estimate Stock Bear Market Downside Potential
INFLATIONARY BEAR MARKET October 17, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Accelerating Inflation Creates Stock Bear Market Opportunities
BEAR MARKET INDICATORS October 9, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Is The Stock Market About To Crash?
GOVERNMENT DEBT WATCH October 3, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
The US Government Is Heading Toward A Major Debt Crisis
BEAR MARKET INTENSIFIES September 24, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
The Fed Pivots To Even More “Pain” For Stocks And The Economy
FED WATCH September 14, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
High Inflation Continues To Force Fed To Cause “Pain”
COMMODITIES September 5, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Oil And Commodities Bear Market Is Likely Just Beginning
RECESSION WATCH August 28, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Powell’s “Pivot” And The Top 10 Signs Of An Impending Recession
HOUSING WATCH August 17, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Housing Bear Market Will Help Cause Great Recession 2.0
BEAR MARKET WATCH August 9, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Why The Next Major Bear Market Selloff Is Likely Coming Soon
RECESSION WATCH July 31, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Fed Rate Hike + Negative GDP = Stock Market Rally
BEAR MARKET WATCH July 22, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
It’s Like 2008 All Over Again, But Likely Worse
BEAR MARKET RISK July 13, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Here Is Why Stocks Will Likely Fall Another 40%+
DISINFLATION TREND July 5, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
From Inflation To Disinflation: Impact On Stocks, Bonds, Commodities And Bitcoin
COMMODITIES WATCH June 27, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Is The Commodities Bull Market Over? See What This Key Indicator Is Telling Us Now
RECESSION WATCH June 23, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Here Comes Another Recession, Thanks To The Fed
BEAR MARKET TECHNICALS June 19, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Spot Stock Bear Market Selloffs And Rallies
BULL VS BEAR June 9, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Three Key Reasons This Is A Bear Market Rally, Not A New Bull Market
INVESTING RISKS June 1, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
The Biggest Risk Investors Face In Coming Years
RECESSION SIGNS May 23, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Central Planning Disaster…The Fed Is Hiking Rates Into A Recession
BULL VS BEAR May 15, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
3 Reasons Bear Market Rally Could Continue, Despite Recessionary Signs
BEAR MARKET SIGNS May 7, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Bear Market Rules Apply…Sell The Rallies Instead Of Buying The Dips
BEAR MARKET SIGNS April 28, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
This Is Not Your Father’s Stock Bear Market
BONDS AND COMMODITIES April 21, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Outlook For Bond And Commodity ETFs In The Coming Recession
SECTOR TRENDS April 12, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Sector Performance Is Warning Us About The Market’s Direction
FED WATCH April 8, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Can The Fed Predict Anything?
RECESSION WATCH April 4, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Recession And Bear Market Countdown Has Started
FED WATCH April 1, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
The Fed Can’t Control The Economy, But They Do Lower Living Standards
LONG-TERM RETURNS March 27, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Will The Stock Market Really Be 50%+ LOWER In 12 Years?
BULL VS BEAR March 20, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Strong Stock Rally Last Week, But Evidence Remains Bearish
BEAR MARKET SIGNS March 10, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Objective Signs A Stock Bear Market Is Starting -- How To Profit Instead Of Lose
ETF TRENDS March 2, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
War Is Helping Fuel The Commodity ETF Bull Market
BEAR MARKET SIGNS February 21, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Warning: Widespread Shift To Bearishness Across Most Stocks And ETFs
SECTOR TRENDS February 17, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Current Best And Worst Stock Sector ETFs
PROFIT FROM INFLATION February 9, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Profit From Inflation With ETFs
INTEREST RATES AND STOCKS February 1, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Proof That Major Stock Bear Markets Can Start Without Rising Interest Rates
BULL VS BEAR January 24, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Market Crashing: Bull Market Correction Or Bear Market Beginning?
FED WATCH January 18, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
What Fed Rate Hikes Can Do To Stocks And ETFs In 2022
STOCK MARKET INDICATORS January 8, 2022 Jon Wolfenbarger
Rough Start To The Year Is Not Encouraging For Most Stocks And ETFs
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS December 31, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
2022 Perfect Storm: Global Slowdown + Fed Tightening?
SECTOR TRENDS December 20, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Current Best And Worst Stock Sector ETFs For Long-Term Trend And Short-Term Trade
ASSET TRENDS December 13, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Current Best and Worst ETFs For Long-Term Trend and Short-Term Trade
BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS December 5, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Holiday Sales Continue On Stocks and “Risk-On” ETFs
BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS November 27, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
“Red Friday” Sale On Stocks And Most ETFs
FED WATCH November 19, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
The Market Says Interest Rate Hikes Are Coming, Whether The Fed Likes It Or Not
COMMODITIES November 11, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Commodities Are The Only Major ETF Asset Class With Attractive Long-Term Returns
BULL VS BEAR November 4, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Bull Market Continues, But Stocks Will Likely Be 50%+ Lower In 12 Years!
BEATING THE MARKET October 26, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Why Mutual Funds Don’t Work
CRYPTOCURRENCIES October 19, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Bull Case For Bitcoin ETFs — And The Best One To Buy Now
BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS October 11, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
The Stock Market Is Weakening More Than Most Stock And ETF Investors Realize
BEAR MARKET PROFITS September 30, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Trade ETFs To Maximize Bear Market Profits
BEAR MARKET PROFITS September 22, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Identify Bear Markets With ETFs And Basic Technical Analysis
BEAR MARKET PROFITS September 19, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Make Money -- Instead Of Lose Money -- In A Stock Bear Market
ETF STRATEGY September 16, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Proof That ETF Strategies Using Technical Analysis Significantly Beat “Buy And Hold” Investing
BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS September 10, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Good News And Bad News For Stocks And Stock ETFs On Three Different Time Frames
BEATING THE MARKET September 1, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Three Ways To Beat The Market With Stocks And ETFs
BEAR MARKET RISK August 28, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Here’s Why The Next Stock Bear Market Will Likely Be The Worst Since The Great Depression
ETF TRENDS August 26, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
These Popular ETF “Inflation Hedges” Are Now Moving In Opposite Directions
ETF STRATEGY August 24, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
What Smart ETF Investors Need To Understand About Bitcoin, Gold and Stocks
SECTOR ETFS August 19, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Sector ETFs With The Best and Worst Earnings Growth In 2021 and 2022
ECONOMICS 101 August 12, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Employment Remains At Recessionary Levels, Thanks To Government Subsidies
MONEY MISCHIEF August 9, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Wise ETF And Stock Investors Focus On Money Supply, Not Employment
BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS August 7, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Bonds, Gold and Silver ETFs Are All In Bear Markets
MONEY MISCHIEF July 31, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Commodity Stocks and ETFs At Risk As Money Supply and Industrial Production Growth Slows
STOCK MARKET TREND July 24, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Market Uptrend Remains Intact, But Four Key Indicators Show Cracks Below The Surface
STOCK MARKET SENTIMENT July 20, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Is Flashing Danger Signs
STOCK MARKET WARNING July 14, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Investor Warning: US Stock Market Is Most Overvalued In History!
ASSET TRENDS July 9, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
What Major Asset (and ETF) SURPRISINGLY Has The Most Bearish Trend Right Now?
INFLATION DANGERS June 30, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
3 Reasons ETF And Stock Investors Must Prepare To Profit From Rising Inflationary Pressures
DEBT DANGERS June 23, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
The Government Debt Bomb Could Decimate Stock And ETF Investors Who Are Not Prepared
BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS June 15, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
What This Proven Indicator Is Telling Us About The Stock Market And Economic Trend
BOOM AND BUST INDICATORS June 8, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
What Every ETF And Stock Investor Should Know About Business Cycles
BOOM AND BUST INDICATORS June 1, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Use The Yield Curve To Profit From Booms And Busts
CREATING WEALTH May 25, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Achieve Financial Freedom By Investing In ETFs And Stocks
FREE MARKET INSIGHTS May 19, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
How Successful Stock And ETF Investing Benefits Society By Creating Wealth
CRYPTOCURRENCIES May 13, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Trader Alert: 5 Bitcoin Bear Market Sell Signals
BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS May 6, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Profit More Than Buy And Hold Investing
BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS April 30, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
Why Smart Stock Traders Always Use The 250-Day Moving Average