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MANUFACTURING WATCH  •  January 6, 2025  •  Jon Wolfenbarger

Trump Trade Fizzles As Manufacturing Weakens And Inflation Accelerates

MUNICH, GERMANY — The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) fell slightly from 49.7 in November to 49.4 in December. Readings below the neutral 50 level indicate contraction in US manufacturing activity. As shown in this chart, the PMI has been around or below the neutral 50 level for the past couple of years.



SP PMI



This was the sixth consecutive month of weaker manufacturing trends. Production fell for the fifth straight month and it was the fastest rate of contraction in 18 months. The leading new orders component of the PMI also declined at a faster pace. New export orders were down, with Europe and Australia reporting weaker demand. As a result, manufacturers pulled back on purchasing activity and inventories.


Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, explained the weak manufacturing trends:

"US factories reported a tough end to 2024, and have scaled back their optimism for growth in the year ahead. Production was cut at an increased rate in December amid disappointing inflows of new orders. While November had seen a near-stabilization of order books as uncertainty surrounding the election passed, reviving customer demand, this respite has proved temporary. Factories are reporting an environment of subdued sales and inquiries, notably in terms of exports.”



Manufacturers’ Sentiment Weakens On Accelerating Inflation

After rising in November over the Trump election win, manufacturers’ sentiment fell back in December and was the lowest since August. This was due to a much higher rise in input costs, including higher supplier charges and rising raw materials costs, which increased at the fastest pace since August. This forced manufacturers to raise their selling prices again to a three-month high. As shown below, both input and output prices have been accelerating for over a year.



PMI prices



As Williamson noted:

“Many firms are generally anticipating that business will pick up in the New Year, with respondents pinning hopes on expectations that the new administration will loosen regulations, reduce tax burdens and boost demand for US-made goods via tariffs. Confidence has consequently risen from a low-point last June, having jumped higher in November on the election result. However, this optimism has been pared back somewhat in December, as firms are now reporting worries over higher input prices, and are concerned that inflation may pick up again, adding to speculation that interest rates will not be cut as much as previously thought likely over the coming year.”



At Least The US Is Not As Weak As Europe

Europe manufacturing trends are even weaker than the US. The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 45.1 in December, a three-month low, while the Output Index fell to a 14-month low of 44.3. As shown below, the Eurozone PMI and Output Index have been contracting for two-and-a-half years. 



Eurozone PMI



Both new orders and output fell at an accelerating rate and there were deep cuts in purchasing activity and inventories. Factory employment continued its downward trend of the past 18 months. The PMIs of the three major Eurozone countries of Germany, France and Italy all declined. The France PMI of 41.9 was the lowest since the covid panic era of May 2020.


Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, described the gloomy Eurozone manufacturing trends: 

“Even in December, the manufacturing sector is not delivering any holiday cheer. It is the same old story – downward. New orders have dropped even more than in the previous two months, crushing any hopes for a quick recovery. This view is backed by the accelerated decline in order backlogs. A sign of the industry's recovery will be when companies start rebuilding their inventories of intermediate goods, but December showed no signs of this happening. Instead, inventories were reduced at a very fast rate again. Companies also sped up the depletion of their finished goods inventories, clearly expecting continued weak demand. Manufacturers are still cutting jobs. Although the pace of job trimming slowed slightly in December, it is still relatively high, and this trend is likely to continue well into the new year given all the news about companies restructuring."



Investment Implications

Declining manufacturing demand and accelerating input and output prices are further evidence of a “stagflationary” environment. The world’s three major economies — US, Europe and China — are all weak and inflation is rising. We believe this is bearish for stocks and other risk assets and bullish for gold, silver and mining stocks.







Forecast




 Previous Issues  


BUBBLE WATCH  •  December 30, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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STOCK MARKET BREADTH  •  December 23, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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INFLATION WATCH  •  December 16, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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JOBS REPORT  •  December 9, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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INFLATION WATCH  •  December 2, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Accelerating Inflation + Weakening Manufacturing = Record Insider Selling

LEADING INDICATORS  •  November 25, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Housing And Leading Economic Indicators Continue To Fall

STAGFLATION WATCH  •  November 18, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
“Stagflation” Signs Intensify With Weakening Economy And Accelerating Inflation

TRUMP POLICIES  •  November 11, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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JOBS AND MANUFACTURING  •  November 4, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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LEADING INDICATORS WATCH  •  October 29, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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STAGFLATION WATCH  •  October 14, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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LEADING INDICATORS WATCH  •  July 22, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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FED WATCH  •  July 15, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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JOBS WATCH  •  July 8, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE  •  July 1, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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HOUSING RECESSION  •  June 24, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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EMPLOYMENT WATCH  •  June 17, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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EARNINGS OUTLOOK  •  June 10, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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STAGFLATION WATCH  •  June 3, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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STOCK MARKET PEAK  •  May 27, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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STAGFLATION AND FED WATCH  •  May 20, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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UNEMPLOYMENT WATCH  •  May 6, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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GOVERNMENT DEBT  •  April 29, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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AI STOCKS  •  April 22, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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EMPLOYMENT WATCH  •  January 8, 2024  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY  •  November 27, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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MACRO OUTLOOK  •  November 20, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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STOCK MARKET WATCH  •  July 24, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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FED POLICY  •  July 10, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BEAR MARKET RISK  •  June 26, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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FED WATCH  •  June 19, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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FED WATCH  •  May 30, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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WARNING SIGNS  •  May 23, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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RECESSION WATCH  •  May 16, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BEAR MARKET WATCH  •  March 23, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BANKING CRISIS  •  March 13, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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INFLATION WATCH  •  January 12, 2023  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BEAR MARKET SELLOFF  •  December 18, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Powell “Pivot” To “Pain” Kicks Off Next Major Bear Market Selloff

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BEAR MARKET UPDATE  •  November 29, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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EARNINGS ESTIMATES  •  November 19, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BEAR MARKET DURATION  •  November 3, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BEAR MARKET LOSSES  •  October 25, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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INFLATIONARY BEAR MARKET  •  October 17, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BEAR MARKET INDICATORS  •  October 9, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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GOVERNMENT DEBT WATCH  •  October 3, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BEAR MARKET INTENSIFIES  •  September 24, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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FED WATCH  •  September 14, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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COMMODITIES  •  September 5, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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RECESSION WATCH  •  August 28, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BEAR MARKET WATCH  •  August 9, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BEAR MARKET WATCH  •  July 22, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BEAR MARKET RISK  •  July 13, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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DISINFLATION TREND  •  July 5, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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COMMODITIES WATCH  •  June 27, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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RECESSION WATCH  •  June 23, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BEAR MARKET TECHNICALS  •  June 19, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BULL VS BEAR  •  June 9, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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INVESTING RISKS  •  June 1, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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RECESSION SIGNS  •  May 23, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BULL VS BEAR  •  May 15, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BEAR MARKET SIGNS  •  May 7, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BEAR MARKET SIGNS  •  April 28, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BONDS AND COMMODITIES  •  April 21, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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SECTOR TRENDS  •  April 12, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Sector Performance Is Warning Us About The Market’s Direction

FED WATCH  •  April 8, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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RECESSION WATCH  •  April 4, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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FED WATCH  •  April 1, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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LONG-TERM RETURNS  •  March 27, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BULL VS BEAR  •  March 20, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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BEAR MARKET SIGNS  •  March 10, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
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ETF TRENDS  •  March 2, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
War Is Helping Fuel The Commodity ETF Bull Market

BEAR MARKET SIGNS  •  February 21, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Warning: Widespread Shift To Bearishness Across Most Stocks And ETFs

SECTOR TRENDS  •  February 17, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Current Best And Worst Stock Sector ETFs

PROFIT FROM INFLATION  •  February 9, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Profit From Inflation With ETFs

INTEREST RATES AND STOCKS  •  February 1, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Proof That Major Stock Bear Markets Can Start Without Rising Interest Rates

BULL VS BEAR  •  January 24, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Market Crashing: Bull Market Correction Or Bear Market Beginning?

FED WATCH  •  January 18, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What Fed Rate Hikes Can Do To Stocks And ETFs In 2022

STOCK MARKET INDICATORS  •  January 8, 2022  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Rough Start To The Year Is Not Encouraging For Most Stocks And ETFs

LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS  •  December 31, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
2022 Perfect Storm: Global Slowdown + Fed Tightening?

SECTOR TRENDS  •  December 20, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Current Best And Worst Stock Sector ETFs For Long-Term Trend And Short-Term Trade

ASSET TRENDS  •  December 13, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Current Best and Worst ETFs For Long-Term Trend and Short-Term Trade

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  December 5, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Holiday Sales Continue On Stocks and “Risk-On” ETFs

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  November 27, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
“Red Friday” Sale On Stocks And Most ETFs

FED WATCH  •  November 19, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Market Says Interest Rate Hikes Are Coming, Whether The Fed Likes It Or Not

COMMODITIES  •  November 11, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Commodities Are The Only Major ETF Asset Class With Attractive Long-Term Returns

BULL VS BEAR  •  November 4, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bull Market Continues, But Stocks Will Likely Be 50%+ Lower In 12 Years!

BEATING THE MARKET  •  October 26, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Why Mutual Funds Don’t Work

CRYPTOCURRENCIES  •  October 19, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bull Case For Bitcoin ETFs — And The Best One To Buy Now

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  October 11, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Stock Market Is Weakening More Than Most Stock And ETF Investors Realize

BEAR MARKET PROFITS  •  September 30, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Trade ETFs To Maximize Bear Market Profits

BEAR MARKET PROFITS  •  September 22, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Identify Bear Markets With ETFs And Basic Technical Analysis

BEAR MARKET PROFITS  •  September 19, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Make Money -- Instead Of Lose Money -- In A Stock Bear Market

ETF STRATEGY  •  September 16, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Proof That ETF Strategies Using Technical Analysis Significantly Beat “Buy And Hold” Investing

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  September 10, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Good News And Bad News For Stocks And Stock ETFs On Three Different Time Frames

BEATING THE MARKET  •  September 1, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Three Ways To Beat The Market With Stocks And ETFs

BEAR MARKET RISK  •  August 28, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Here’s Why The Next Stock Bear Market Will Likely Be The Worst Since The Great Depression

ETF TRENDS  •  August 26, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
These Popular ETF “Inflation Hedges” Are Now Moving In Opposite Directions

ETF STRATEGY  •  August 24, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What Smart ETF Investors Need To Understand About Bitcoin, Gold and Stocks

SECTOR ETFS  •  August 19, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Sector ETFs With The Best and Worst Earnings Growth In 2021 and 2022

ECONOMICS 101  •  August 12, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Employment Remains At Recessionary Levels, Thanks To Government Subsidies

MONEY MISCHIEF  •  August 9, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Wise ETF And Stock Investors Focus On Money Supply, Not Employment

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  August 7, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Bonds, Gold and Silver ETFs Are All In Bear Markets

MONEY MISCHIEF  •  July 31, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Commodity Stocks and ETFs At Risk As Money Supply and Industrial Production Growth Slows

STOCK MARKET TREND  •  July 24, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Market Uptrend Remains Intact, But Four Key Indicators Show Cracks Below The Surface

STOCK MARKET SENTIMENT  •  July 20, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Stock Market Investor Sentiment Is Flashing Danger Signs

STOCK MARKET WARNING  •  July 14, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Investor Warning: US Stock Market Is Most Overvalued In History!

ASSET TRENDS  •  July 9, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What Major Asset (and ETF) SURPRISINGLY Has The Most Bearish Trend Right Now?

INFLATION DANGERS  •  June 30, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
3 Reasons ETF And Stock Investors Must Prepare To Profit From Rising Inflationary Pressures

DEBT DANGERS  •  June 23, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
The Government Debt Bomb Could Decimate Stock And ETF Investors Who Are Not Prepared

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  June 15, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
What This Proven Indicator Is Telling Us About The Stock Market And Economic Trend

BOOM AND BUST INDICATORS  •  June 1, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Use The Yield Curve To Profit From Booms And Busts

CREATING WEALTH  •  May 25, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Achieve Financial Freedom By Investing In ETFs And Stocks

FREE MARKET INSIGHTS  •  May 19, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How Successful Stock And ETF Investing Benefits Society By Creating Wealth

CRYPTOCURRENCIES  •  May 13, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Trader Alert: 5 Bitcoin Bear Market Sell Signals

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  May 6, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Profit More Than Buy And Hold Investing

BULL AND BEAR TECHNICALS  •  April 30, 2021  •  Jon Wolfenbarger
Why Smart Stock Traders Always Use The 250-Day Moving Average