Investing Insights
Our most popular feature by far, Investing Insights unleashes the experienced minds of Jon and our team, sharing exclusive information & education we believe smart investors should know BEFORE risking funds in current markets. We share fresh insights at least weekly -- but sometimes more frequently -- as our proprietary economic and technically-driven models & indicators flash bull, bear, turning points, risk flags, wobbles, bubble alerts, accelerating profit opportunities and much, much more. Our members can learn a great deal from this section and it can help both grow AND preserve your nest egg. Since you won’t find these insights anywhere else on the web, we encourage you to bookmark this feature and check back often.
BEAR MARKET PROFITS September 22, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Identify Bear Markets With ETFs And Basic Technical Analysis
NASHVILLE, TN — Bear Markets Are THE Major Problem For Investors
Bear markets are the nemesis of all investors. If stocks and other financial assets were always in bull market uptrends, the life of an investor would be easy, stress-free and filled with unicorns and rainbows. But that is not the case, unfortunately.
In addition to causing huge losses and lots of stress, the damage from bear markets can last for decades. For example, it took about 25 years for the US stock market to return to its 1929 peak. And the Japanese stock market is still about 20% below its 1989 peak, 32 years later — after having been down 80% 20 years after that peak! Two or three decades of losses is more than most investors can handle emotionally or financially.
But what can investors do about bear markets? Is there a solution to this vexing problem?
Most Wall Street advisors will tell you to always stay fully invested in stocks “for the long run” (which keeps their fees flowing uninterrupted) since it is “impossible to time the market”.
They are right that it is impossible to “time the market” or consistently pick tops and bottoms. But they are wrong when they lead you to believe that you can’t make lots of money (or at least avoid huge losses) by learning to identify the key indicators of bear markets and acting wisely on those indicators.
This is very important, since we see many factors that point to the next bear market being the worst since the Great Depression.
Key Bear Market Indicators
There are many technical indicators we follow that provide objective evidence that the stock market is in a bull or bear market, including breadth indicators such as advance-decline lines, new highs and lows, etc. Please see our webinar entitled “HOW TO USE STOCK MARKET INDICATORS TO INVEST FOR BULL AND BEAR PROFITS” for a detailed discussion of those indicators and how to interpret their charts.
In addition to those indicators, which are extremely useful for identifying stock market trends, there is a very simple and proven technical tool that can be used to determine bull and bear market trends for any financial asset: moving averages.
A moving average is a line on a price chart that shows the average price for the asset over a given time period. It “moves” every trading day as a new day is added and the oldest day drops off. Moving averages are very useful for assessing trends because they smooth out the noise of daily stock price movements and help you see trends more clearly.
We like to focus on these key moving average time periods:
1. 20-day moving average (20-dma) — roughly one month of trading days to assess the short-term trend
2. 60-dma — roughly three months of trading days to assess the intermediate-term trend
3. 250-dma — roughly 12 months of trading days to assess the long-term trend
A “bull market” in a financial asset means there is a rising price uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Conversely, a “bear market” in a financial asset means there is a falling price downtrend with lower highs and lower lows.
To reduce the risk of “head fakes” and smooth out trends, we generally use the following technical rules to determine when a bull market uptrend is in place:
1. price is above the 250-dma,
2. 20-dma is above the 250-dma,
3. 60-dma is above the 250-dma and
4. slope of 250-dma is positive
Conversely, we generally use the following technical rules to determine when a bear market downtrend is in place:
1. price is below the 250-dma,
2. 20-dma is below the 250-dma,
3. 60-dma is below the 250-dma and
4. slope of 250-dma is negative
Now let’s see how these simple technical rules can help you earn substantial profits in both bull and bear markets.
S&P 500 Bull And Bear Markets
The chart below shows the price of the S&P 500 (black line) with its 250-dma since 1980. We put red circles around periods when the price fell below the 250-dma and the slope of the 250-dma was declining.
Six of these eight “bear market” periods were short-lived. Acting on them would have generally led to break-even results, more or less.
But two of them — the early 2000s Tech Bust and the 2008-2009 Great Recession — were major bear markets where substantial profits could have been earned by investing in ETFs that make money in bear markets. We discussed these ETFs in our Member Q&A “How can you make money — instead of lose money — in a major bear market with ETFs?”.
Early 2000s Tech Bust
The early 2000s Tech Bust bear market is shown in the chart below of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The price of SPY is shown in orange with the 250-dma shown in red, the 60-dma shown in green and the 20-dma shown in blue.
From November 2000 when the price of SPY, as well as the 20-dma and 60-dma all fell below the 250-dma, until the bottom nearly two years later in October 2002, SPY fell about 41%. By June 2003, when the price of SPY, as well as the 20-dma and 60-dma all rose above the 250-dma, SPY had fallen about 24%.
If one had owned SPY during the period of those clear signals from November 2000 to June 2003, $100 of portfolio value would have fallen to $76. If instead, one had acted on those signals by simply buying an inverse ETF such as ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH) — which didn’t exist then, but does now — in November 2000 and then exiting SH in June 2003, $100 of portfolio value would have risen to $124.
That would have created 63% more wealth, well worth the time and effort of making those two trades! Furthermore, additional profits during that bear market could have been made using other simple technical indicators that help identify bear market rallies, which we will discuss in a future article and have discussed here and here.
2008-2009 Great Recession
The 2008-2009 Great Recession bear market is shown in the chart below of SPY. Again, the price of SPY is shown in orange with the 250-dma shown in red, the 60-dma shown in green and the 20-dma shown in blue.
From January 2008 when the price of SPY, as well as the 20-dma and 60-dma all fell below the 250-dma, until the bottom in March 2009, SPY fell about 49%. By August 2009, when the price of SPY, as well as the 20-dma and 60-dma all rose above the 250-dma, SPY had fallen about 23%.
If one had owned SPY during the period of those signals from January 2008 to August 2009, $100 of portfolio value would have fallen to $77. If instead, one had acted on those signals by simply buying an inverse ETF such as ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH) — which did exist then — in January 2008 and then exiting SH in August 2009, $100 of portfolio value could have risen to $123. That would have created 60% more wealth — not bad for a couple of trades! And again, additional profits could have been made during that time by using other simple technical indicators and acting on them.
Implications For Investors
By properly understanding and using technical indicators, as we do at Bull And Bear Profits, you can earn substantial profits during bear markets, instead of suffering crushing losses.
While these simple rules won’t help you pick the exact top or bottom of a bull or bear market, nothing else will either. But you can create lots of wealth by understanding these rules and acting on them.
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BEAR MARKET PROFITS September 22, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
How To Identify Bear Markets With ETFs And Basic Technical Analysis
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DEBT DANGERS June 23, 2021 Jon Wolfenbarger
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